How Can the Physics of Complex Systems Advance Our Understanding of Earthquakes?
| Quand ? |
Le 07/09/2026, de 10:45 à 11:45 |
|---|---|
| Où ? | Salle Condorcet |
| S'adresser à | Alexis Poncet |
| Participants |
Giuseppe Petrillo |
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Earthquakes are emergent phenomena of a complex system, the Earth’s crust, where interactions among fault segments, stress accumulation, and rupture dynamics give rise to statistical regularities such as the Gutenberg-Richter and Omori laws. In the spirit of statistical mechanics, minimal models can capture these macroscopic patterns while allowing systematic exploration of the microscopic processes driving them. In this seminar, I present a research line that combines concepts from complex systems physics with statistical seismology to investigate seismic gap theory and how stress redistribution influences the spatial and magnitude distribution of subsequent earthquakes. Starting from a two-layer OFC-type model with brittle-ductile coupling, we reproduce key empirical laws and test physical hypotheses on earthquake triggering. We show that mainshocks preferentially nucleate at the periphery of previous ruptures, where stress is concentrated, and that stress release constrains aftershock magnitudes inside the rupture zone, also giving information of recurrence time of next impending event. By bridging numerical simulations, statistical analysis, and physical reasoning, this work demonstrates how minimal, physics-informed models can serve as laboratories for testing mechanisms and improving seismic hazard forecasts.